This really pisses me off!
I mean the headline. By-the-way, the headline is not mine – in fact it is a recent headline from CNN Money dated July 7, 2011. Here is the url http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/06/news/economy/home_prices_real_estate/ in the event that anyone wishes to read the entire article.
I wonder to myself – is this a true reflection of the Real Estate market? Is there any substance and integrity to the forecasts and projections provided by the economists that they surveyed for their report? Is there any positive data or information out there in the world of woe and misery that just might be available to help us to wake up tomorrow with a bright attitude – or should we all just foreclose on our houses and let the Chinese worry about it once they take over the USA.
In the opening sentence of the referenced article CNN says “Housing prices are likely to keep falling the rest of this year, and probably won't show much improvement next year either, according to a survey of economists. A CNNMoney exclusive survey of 27 economists showed the battered housing market is facing myriad problems and won't turn around anytime soon.
Damn, who wants to argue with 27 economists? Why so colorful with the characterization of the market - it sounds like abusive Hollywood celebrity relationships – battered with a myriad of problems – reconciliation unlikely.
Because I work the Real Estate market in La Jolla & UTC in San Diego California every day, the reality of what I see just did not resonate with the essence of the article. Just so you have a different perspective to ponder, let me provide you with a brief summary of information that I retrieved from the San Diego Multiple Listing Service (or MLS) which is a computer database available to Real Estate agents to list and sell house. I searched for total number of houses sold during the most recent 6 month periods, including information for those houses that sold above $1,000,000.
Jan. 2010 to Jun . 2010 | Jul 2010 to Dec. 2010 | Jan. 2011 to Jun. 2011 | ||
Total Units Sold | 16,750 | 15,764 | 15,687 | |
Sold Units > $1,000,000 | 737 | 750 | 786 | |
Average Days on Market | 99 | 103 | 98 | |
Average Selling Price | $1,725,780 | $1,727,839 | $1,722,027 | |
Average Square Footage | 3,856 | 3,881 | 3,824 | |
Average Price / Square Foot | $ 448 | $ 445 | $ 450 | |
Total Valuation of Homes sold | $ 1.27 billion | $ 1.30 billion | $ 1.33 billion |
For those who get nauseous from looking at charts and graphs and data, let me summarize. The decline in the total units sold (16,750 to 15,687) is largely the result of a slow down in demand. And this slowdown in demand is caused largely by the pervasive bombardment of negative and uncertain media. Many buyers have postponed their plans to purchase a new home, because they are waiting for all the foreclosures to be dumped in to the market, and they are waiting for more drastic price reductions. Buyers everywhere are relying on information spoon-fed to them by people they don’t know, yet are willing to trust. And, when it comes right down to brass tacks, I’ll bet that nearly every reader of this blog would first trust the article in the CNN before giving me a chance at credibility.
Look at the chart a bit further. The number of houses sold above the $1,000,000 price point is on the rise. Days on market is flat. The average price per square foot is slightly on the increase. While these numbers may not yet point to a market gone vertical, it is at least the absence of negative.
I admit - this slice of the pie may not dominate the market trending, it is certainly something to consider that may be pointing toward a “bottom” of the residential Real Estate decline. When I refer to a bottom I do not necessarily predict an absolute bottom, but one that marks a “mean low tide”, versus those doomsday forecasters who expect a drop into the abyss.
Statement of disclaimer; “these are my personal opinions and not those of Prudential California Realty”
If you want to put a smile on your face, go to our website at http://www.San-Diego-Cal-Homes.com/fun-photos/,
Our goal is to help and guide people to buy and sell San Diego Homes: Contact us soon - and let us apply for the job of being your Real Estate agent.
Charles M. Schevker (CPA)
DRE # 01875556
Broker Associate
Prudential California Realty
1299 Prospect St.
La Jolla, CA. 92037
Charles M. Schevker (CPA)
DRE # 01875556
Broker Associate
Prudential California Realty
1299 Prospect St.
La Jolla, CA. 92037
Main Office: (858) 551-3319
Mobile: (858) 449-8250
